Affordability Politics Puts Trade, Tech, and Antitrust Center Stage for Business Risk

The throughline from last week is that policymakers on both sides of the aisle are treating prices and affordability as an organizing principle - raising the political risk calculus for businesses. Tariffs are becoming an explicit midterms liability, states are building parallel antitrust enforcement lanes, and lawmakers are converging on a new affordability frame for AI infrastructure—make Big Tech pay. The net effect is not abstract but has real operational implications for companies – a higher compliance burden, more volatile input costs, and faster “policy-to-p&l” impact.

In this week’s edition:

Tariff policy + uncertainty: House votes on tariff packages, Supreme Court backdrop, White House carve-outs, and metal tariff recalibration all colliding.
State antitrust acceleration: California “mini-HSR” expands deal friction and confidentiality exposure and raises stakes for copy-cat states.
AI & Affordability: Affordability backlash on AI data centers (electricity bills as a political target; federal + state actions emerging).

Read more below for this week’s action steps and what to watch next.

Tariffs: House procedure, carve-outs, and a pivot on metals signal a messy next phase

Business Risk Level: High

WHAT HAPPENED

Six House Republicans voted with Democrats to pass a resolution to repeal President Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The resolution would remove the ability for the President to use a national emergency to impose punitive measures on Canada, and is one of several that Democrats seek to force a vote on as they position affordability to the forefront of the midterm elections this fall.
Separately, reporting indicates the administration is considering chip-tariff carve-outs for major U.S. tech firms, potentially tied to TSMC-linked investment commitments and/or the new U.S.–Taiwan trade framework.
The administration is also reportedly weighing rolling back or narrowing certain steel and aluminum tariff coverage, shifting toward more targeted national-security probes for specific goods.

BUSINESS RISK

Policy volatility becomes the cost driver. The immediate risk isn’t just “tariffs up” or “tariffs down”—it’s frequent redesign: exemptions, carve-outs, product list edits, and legal uncertainty all hitting procurement cycles.
Uneven playing field risk rises. If carve-outs cluster around hyperscalers (cloud platforms/AI leaders), downstream buyers (manufacturing, healthcare, mid-market tech, integrators) may face higher chip input costs than their largest competitors.
Trade policy is becoming a campaign object.Firms lobbying for exemptions risk being framed as “special treatment” while households are stressed. The reputational hazard is highest for consumer-facing brands and large employers in swing districts.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Additional tariff votes to watch: Monitor whether the House schedules further floor votes aimed at other tariff packages—and how the Senate chooses to engage. More politically sensitive tariff roll calls are likely soon, including potential House votes as early as this month on duties affecting Brazil and Mexico, along with the administration’s broader global emergency tariffs. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also indicated he expects the Senate to take up the resolution addressing the Canada tariffs.
Supreme Court decision in the tariff case: February 20 is the next scheduled opinion day as we wait for the Court’s ruling that could invalidate most of President Trump’s signature tariffs.

Antitrust: California builds a parallel “deal notification” lane

Business Risk Level: Medium

WHAT HAPPENED

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed SB 25, requiring companies already filing federal Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) premerger notifications to also provide those materials to California officials. The law takes effect in 2027 and adds another layer of review and coordination for covered deals tied to California footprint thresholds.

BUSINESS RISK & MORE

California’s SB 25 adds friction to M&A by expanding who sees HSR-style filings, increasing leakage risk and complicating deal timelines—especially in politically sensitive sectors. It also entrenches a “multi-enforcer” environment, giving California earlier visibility and raising the odds of parallel state inquiries, including labor-centered theories like wage effects and monopsony.

Governement relations and deal teams should stand up a state-notification workstream, tighten privilege/confidentiality protocols, brief the board on the new disclosure landscape, and map key California stakeholders. Looking ahead, watch whether other big states follow with “mini-HSR” rules, accelerating a patchwork beyond California.

Affordability & AI Data Centers: Electricity bills become the next tech flashpoint

Business Risk Level: Medium

WHAT HAPPENED

Lawmakers are pressing tech firms on whether AI data center expansion is driving up residential electricity bills. Reporting shows bipartisan appetite for “tech should pay,” but disagreement on how to define and enforce a “fair share.” Separate developments include public pledges by AI firms to cover grid-upgrade costs and reduce peak demand impacts—moves that also signal rising political heat.

BUSINESS RISK & MORE

Rising political scrutiny of AI data centers is turning permitting, power pricing, and community relations into near-term operating risk. Expect more state action—and potentially federal proposals—shifting who pays for transmission upgrades, interconnection, and capacity, which can quickly change site-selection math and delay buildouts through new cost-allocation rules and local pushback. Workforce impacts are growing too, as concerns over water use, noise, and grid reliability create safety and recruiting friction in key corridors.

Reputationally, “AI = higher bills” is an easy message, so hyperscalers and large AI adopters should get ahead of scrutiny by clearly explaining cost responsibility, committing to transparent community engagement, and auditing utility contracts for cost-sharing and curtailment exposure while tracking upcoming moves to reshape approvals and incentives.

The Trendline

Affordability is the connective tissue across trade, antitrust, and AI infrastructure. Tariffs are being pulled into a midterms frame (prices first), carve-outs threaten to split markets into “exempt” and “non-exempt” cost structures, and the administration’s metals recalibration signals sensitivity to consumer price optics. Meanwhile, California’s SB 25 is a reminder that even if Washington slows down, states can speed up—especially where consumer and labor narratives align. Finally, data centers have crossed the line from “local zoning fight” to “national cost-of-living story.” Businesses should assume more policy aimed directly at household cost perception, not just abstract economic theory.